A STUDY ON LONG TERM RAINFALL PATTERN OF DHUBRI AND GUWAHATI IN ASSAM, INDIA: A TIME SERIES APPROACH
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Abstract
Understanding the rainfall pattern is tough for the solution of several regional environmental issues of water resources management, with implications for agriculture, climate change, and natural calamity such as floods and droughts. Statistical computing, modelling and forecasting meteorological data are the key instruments for studying these patterns. This study aims to establish the rainfall trends of the two stations of Assam viz. Guwahati and Dhubri. The collected data is secondary in nature and obtained from the website of Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, United States consisting of 36 years monthly rainfall records for the period 1979-2014. We have performed Sen’s slope method and Mann-Kendall test to assess the magnitude along with the statistical significance of trend. So far as monthly analysis is concerned, a gradual decrease in rainfall has been observed for maximum months in both the stations. Moreover, seasonal analysis has witnessed a noticeable similarity between the stations that is the presence of significant downward trend for winter and monsoon months over the entire period of 1979-2014.
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